Predictions: The 2013 Academy Award Nominations (Napoli)

Daniel Bayley and Michael Napoli make the predictions for Thursday, January 10'ths Oscar nominations. Whoever gets closer buys the other man a burger (happens every year my friends). May the best man win! Let us know what you think of the picks.

Michael Napoli's Predictions 


Best Foreign Language Film

1. Amour (Austria)
2. No (Chile)
3. A Royal Affair (Denmark)
4. The Intouchables (France)
5. Beyond the Hills (Romania)

Best Animated Feature

1. Brave
2. Frankenweenie
3. The Painting
4. Paranorman
5. Wreck it Ralph

Comment: It's so hard to predict this because Disney will have three chances of winning. Dreamworks did not have a strong year at all. The Painting is that random nomination (The Secret of Kells, Surf's Up).

Best Original Screenplay

1. Arbitrage - Nicolas Jarecki
2. Looper - Rian Johnson
3. The Master - Paul Thomas Anderson
4. Moonrise Kingdom - Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
5. Zero Dark Thirty - Mark Boal

Comment: This category is always tricking, because the Academy usually surprises us with screenplays people don't usually expect. There are quite a few of them that could take down one of my choices. Despite my opinion of poor writing, Django Unchained has a chance. Martin McDonagh was nominated for In Bruges, so they might go for Seven Psychopaths.

I do think that Zero Dark Thirty and Moonrise Kingdom are locked.

 Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Argo - Chris Terrio
2. Beasts of the Southern Wild - Lucy Alibar and Benh Zietlin
3. Lincoln - Tony Kushner
4. The Perks of Being a Wallflower - Stephen Chbosky
5. Silver Linings Playbook - David O. Russell

Comment: I am very confident that these will be the top five. I really don't know any other screenplays that could make an impact. I don't know how the Academy will like Life of Pi, which could be the only spoiler, but it's a longshot in my opinion. I really think Perks will get the nomination and it should.

 Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Adams - The Master
2. Sally Field - Lincoln
3. Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
4. Helen Hunt - The Sessions
5. Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy

Comment: I like this years Oscars because every acting category is really tricky. For every category there are about 7 to 8 actors that could make the cut. The only spoiler that could bite me in the ass is Ann Dowd for Compliance. She has put a lot this year in campaigning and it could either favor her or not. I pick Kidman because she got the SAG nomination. I also feel that Adams is at risk at well. All depends how they like The Master.

 Best Supporting Actor

1. Alan Arkin - Argo
2. Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
3. Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
5. Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln

Comment: Jones, Hoffman and DeNiro are locked at this point. Arkin as much as I don't want him to get a nomination, he is a favorite for one. The fifth spot can go to a number of people (Waltz, DiCaprio, Bardem, McConaughey). But I'm going to go for Dwight Henry's amazing performance in Beasts of the Southern Wild and I hope the Academy will recognize it.

Best Actress

1. Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
2. Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
3. Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
4. Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Naomi Watts - The Impossible

Comment: I am going with Quvenzhane Wallis in the top 5. I don't think the Academy will honor two foreign film performances. It's difficult enough to get one in alone. Riva has Cannes best actress and critics awards. Although Cotillard is getting more notices, she has one already. But either her, Helen Mirren and dark horse Rachel Weisz are strong contenders.

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
2. Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
3. John Hawkes - The Sessions
4. Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
5. Denzel Washington - Flight

Comment: God I am going to kick myself if I get this wrong. Because Jackman is just as likely to get nominated than any of the other five men. But something tells me that if they like Silver Linings, they have to nominate Cooper who carries the movie. If it was any other year, I'd predict Gere to get an easy nomination for career best performance from many critics. I really hope Phoenix didn't ruin his chances for the nomination. It should not matter at all and in my book it would be travesty to not nominate the performance of the year.

Best Director

1. Ben Affleck - Argo
2. Ang Lee - Life of Pi
3. Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
4. David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
5. Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty

Comment: I am very confident that Tom Hooper will be left out. The movie has gotten so many criticisms and he has become the target of it. It was an ambitious film, but how many will think that it was failed ambition? Will they honor Tom Hooper's Les Miserables or Les Miserables? That's my thoughts on how they might process the film. I really think they won't bite.

In regards to other directors, Haneke could get it, but it's a tough struggle. Same for Paul Thomas Anderson. But who knows.

Best Picture

1. Amour
2. Argo
3. Beasts of the Southern Wild
4. Les Miserables
5. Life of Pi
6. Lincoln
7. The Master
8. Moonrise Kingdom
9. Silver Linings Playbook
10. Zero Dark Thirty

Comment: This list alone shows that how great 2012 was for film. I really, really wanted to put Skyfall in that top ten, but I know the Academy won't be brave enough to do it. But if it does, I would be ecstatic. Django Unchained could push one of them out. But what other film can grab a Best Picture nomination?

Now as is to how many nominees there will be. I think it'll be either 8 or ten.

-Michael Napoli