2013 Oscar Predictions- BAYLEY

Less than a week away...it's coming...it's almost here...finally.

It's the 2013 Academy Awards! The biggest film awards event of the year. The ceremony that will have just as many awkward, grating moments as satisfying enjoyments and yet I look forward to it every year. I love seeing the appreciation of film televised in a major way and getting into the history of film-making as seen through the prestigious eyes of this Academy. But man, there were years where I turned off the tube disappointed (Best Pictures' Crash and The King's Speech).

But it's a whole new year and 2012 was one for the record books. Some of the biggest blockbusters and  the most enjoyable awards season crop in a long time. And I even saw a movie four times in the theater this year with the Avengers!

But enough with all that. It's time for you to win your Oscar pool at work or just get prepared and excited to shout at the tv before the winners are announced. It's my predictions for the 2013 Oscars!

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Quentin Tarantino- Django Unchained
Should Win: Mark Boal- Zero Dark Thirty

The nominees in this category are "Zero Dark Thirty", "Django Unchained", "Moonrise Kingdom", "Amour", and "Flight".

 I'm frankly surprised that "Flight" is there but you'd be a drugged man in Vegas to bet on that film winning. "Amour" has a very good chance with Michael Haneke gaining much acclaim. But I see "Django Unchained" picking up the win. The Academy is back to appreciating Mr. Tarantino's work after "Inglorious Basterds" and after picking up the Golden Globe for Screenplay, I would say he is the favorite. I would have not awarded him for his overlong and frankly inconsistent work here and would have given the award to Mark Boal for his powerful character study and hard-hitting political drama, "Zero Dark Thirty".

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Chris Terrio- Argo
Should Win: David O. Russell- Silver Linings Playbook

The nominees are "Lincoln", "Silver Linings Playbook", "Argo", "Life of Pi" and "Beasts of the Southern Wild".

"Lincoln" may have taken 10 years to write and was seemingly historically accurate to a tee, but was very drawn out and thin, lacking subplot or developing dramatic value for me as a viewer. It still may come up as a winner so don't count it out. And while Russell I feel gives the most entertaining dramatic comedy film of the year, greatly in part for the writing, it is Terrio's "Argo" script that will be one of the big awards the film gets this year.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Anne Hathaway- Les Miserables
Should Win: Anne Hathaway- Les Miserables

The nominees are Sally Field for "Lincoln", Anne Hathaway for "Les Miserables", Jacki Weaver for "Silver Linings Playbook", Helen Hunt for "The Sessions" and Amy Adams for "The Master".

 This is locked and set and the Oscar is in the mail for Ms. Hathaway. She has swept the awards' season board in this category, and deservedly so. With very little screen time, she gives a raw and powerful turn as Fantine that is the standout here. Her one-take performance of "I Dreamed A Dream" is a must-watch.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Christoph Waltz-Django Unchained
Should Win: Robert De Niro-"Silver Linings Playbook".

The nominees in this category are Christoph Waltz for "Django Unchained", Philip Seymour Hoffman for "The Master", Robert De Niro for "Silver Linings Playbook", Alan Arkin for "Argo", and Tommy Lee Jones for "Lincoln".

 This is a three way race between Jones, Waltz, and De Niro. While Waltz and Jones picked up the Globe and SAG, De Niro has Weinstein campaigning hard for him and he has not won an Oscar since "Raging Bull". Not only is he long overdue, but this was the perfect performance to shake him out of his rut phoning in comedies that did not showcase his talents enough.

But alas I feel Waltz will shine on through here. His role as Dr. King Schultz was one of the best parts of "Django Unchained" and he is very settled in delivering Tarantino dialogue with just the right amount of smooth style and energy it demands. While Hans Landa was the charismatic and truly intimidating villain of "Basterds", Schultz is the equally charismatic sidekick to our hero who is in complete control of the film until Dicaprio's similarly showy performance rolls in. Tarantino is giving Waltz the roles of a lifetime and he hits them out of the park. The Oscar goes to Waltz here.

Best Actress

Will Win: Emmanuelle Riva- Amour
Should Win: Jessica Chastain- Zero Dark Thirty

The nominees are Naomi Watts for "The Impossible", Jessica Chastain for "Zero Dark Thirty", Jennifer Lawrence for "Silver Linings Playbook", Emmanuelle Riva for "Amour", and Quvenzhane' Walis for "Beasts of the Southern Wild".

I'm predicting Riva to win this due to her BAFTA "Best Actress" win and her critical acclaim. It will be a win reminiscent of Marion Cotillard in "La Vie en Rose" in 2007. While Lawrence and Chastain won the Globes, and Lawrence won the SAG, I think the Academy will go with the veteran actress here. She is the oldest nominee ever and would be the oldest to win (Fun Fact: She was also born the same year as the first Academy Award Best Picture "Wings" came out).

I would still award Chastain here. Maya was my favorite character of last year as a strong and stern CIA Officer in a male dominated government workplace that must stand up to superiors and stay true to her task in order to catch the most dangerous and lost terrorist in the world. I can't applaud this film enough.

Best Actor

Will Win: Daniel Day Lewis- Lincoln
Should Win: Hugh Jackman- Les Miserables

The nominees are Daniel Day Lewis for "Lincoln", Denzel Washington for "Flight", Hugh Jackman for "Les Miserables", Bradley Cooper for "Silver Linings Playbook" and Joequin Phoenix for "The Master".

In any other year I would say Jackman would have this. Reviving the musical, delivering riveting drama, and physical transformations are all on the plate for the role of Jean Valjean. Hugh Jackman gives the performance of a lifetime here. All of these performances had me walking out of the theater in awe, but none like the complexity the demanding role of Valjean had. Jackman has impressed me greatly. But alas...you just can't beat...

Daniel Day Lewis. This man is a machine. He loses himself in every role. There's nothing more I can say except he is one of the actors ever to grace the screen. He is the reason to go see "Lincoln". He creates a believable, likable, and surprisingly softer human out of our 16th president. What else more can I say. He will become the first actor to have won three Best Actor awards. You MUST bet on this win.

Best Director
Will Win: David O. Russell-Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win: David O. Russell- Silver Linings Playbook

The nominees are David O. Russell for "Silver Linings Playbook", Ang Lee for "Life of Pi", Steven Spielberg for "Lincoln", "Michael Haneke for "Amour" and Benh Zeitlin for "Beasts of the Southern Wild".

This is the most open race at the Oscars. With Ben Affleck being snubbed by the Academy, he has swept the board elsewhere probably due to equal parts sympathy and recognition by his peers.  "Argo" is a great film and I would have had Affleck included in this bunch. But the award must go somewhere. I feel Spielberg has a GREAT chance but has had his time. Lee has lost momentum. Haneke and Zeitlin are happy to be included. The winner is...

David O. Russell. "Silver Linings Playbook" was the crowd pleaser. Weinstein is going to back him for it. It was a very personal film that messed comedy and drama greatly and I can honestly say I never had a dull moment with it. Though Spielberg had a beautiful cinematic scope and Ang Lee had some very powerful imagery, Russell had the "balance" of tone that won everyone over and entertained the masses the most. He is the favorite in my eyes.

Best Picture
Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Silver Linings Playbook


I love Best Picture. It's the award where you look back on the year and you remember every film that came out but "that" Best Picture winner was the one that the Academy chose to represent the year for the history books. Now, that hasn't always gone right at times. In fact it's gone horribly wrong. But this year, it looks like "Argo" just has it in the bag. It's a very good film that has a suspenseful climax, great performances, and meshes history with drama/comedy well. A good watch. But "Zero Dark Thirty" is my favorite film of the year. I walked out of that and said, "That is it. That's a perfect movie". Absolutely spell-binding storytelling. Kathryn Bigelow can direct suspenseful drama like no other. If you thought "Argo" got you on the edge of your seat, go see "Zero Dark Thirty" and get ready for a real rush.

So...why did I choose "Silver Linings Playbook" as my choice if "Zero Dark Thirty" is my favorite film of the year? I rarely do that. But I would award SLP not only because it is the best comedy of the year, not only because Lawrence, De Niro, and Cooper give some of their best work, not only because I think Russell is the director the year, but because it was the universal crowd pleaser. If we look back in history, I don't think anyone would be horribly upset it won. In fact, I think everyone would be happy. If I showed you these 9 films listed below, I think it might be your favorite. It's not as controversial as the political films, not as violent as "Django Unchained", it's accessible, funny, and all around a just damn good movie. "Zero Dark Thirty" might ruffle too many feathers with a win. But what can I say except, go see it. In fact, go see all these movies. 2012, you were one for the record books.




My other predicted winners below in bold...

Best Animated Feature Film

Frankenweenie
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph
ParaNorman
Brave

Best Foreign-Language Film

Amour (Austria)
No (Chile)
War Witch (Canada)
A Royal Affair (Den)
Kontiki (Norway)

Original Score

Anna Karenina, Dario Marianelli
Argo, Alexandre Desplat
Life of Pi, Mychael Danna
Lincoln, John Williams
Skyfall, Thomas Newman

Original Song

"Before My Time," J. Ralph; Chasing Ice
"Pi's Lullaby," Mychael Danna & Bombay Jayashri; Life of Pi
"Suddenly," Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boulil; Les Misérables
"Everybody Needs a Best Friend," Walter Murphy & Seth McFarlane; Ted
"Skyfall," Adele Adkins & Paul Epworth; Skyfall

Achievement in Production Direction

Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln

Achievement in Cinematography

Anna Karenina, Seamus McGarvey
Django Unchained, Robert Richardson
Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda
Lincoln, Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall, Roger Deakins

Achievement in Costume Design

Anna Karenina, Jacqueline Durran
Les Misérables, Paco Delgado
Lincoln, Joanna Johnston
Mirror Mirror, Eiko Ishioka
Snow White and the Huntsman, Colleen Atwood

Best Documentary Feature

5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for a Sugar Man

Best Documentary Short Subject

Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption

Achievement in Film Editing

Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Achievement in Makeup & Hairstyling

Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables

Best Animated Short Film

Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head Over Heels
Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare"
Paperman

Best Live-Action Short Film

Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry

Achievement in Sound Editing

Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Achievement in Sound Mixing

Argo
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Achievement in Visual Effects

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Marvel's The Avengers
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman

Don't miss the 85th Annual Academy Awards, Sunday February 24th. And write me who you think will go home with Oscar gold.

-Daniel Bayley