Michael Napoli Predictions
Best Animated Feature
1. The Adventures of Tin Tin
2. Arthur Christmas
3. Puss in Boots
4. Rango
5. Winnie the Pooh
Watch out, because I have a feeling that Kung Fu Panda could steal a spot.
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Artist - Michel Hazanivicius
2. 50/50 - Will Reiser
3. Midnight in Paris - Woody Allen
4. The Tree of Life- Terence Malick
5. Win Win - Thomas McCarthy
This is a tricky category, simply because we do not have any idea on whether the Academy will honor The Tree of Life. I'd would really hate if Bridesmaids got the nom, because people to seem to embrace a mediocre script. Plus it would a shame for it to be nominated this year where The Hangover didn't get it two years ago. I'd prefer to see Diablo Cody get it for Young Adult.
Potential Spoiler(s):
Young Adult and/or Bridesmaids
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. The Descendants - Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash
2. The Help - Tate Taylor
3. Hugo - john Logan
4. Moneyball - Steve Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin
5. War Horse - Richard Curtis, Lee Hall
This one is probably the most predictable. But I could be totally wrong. The problem with predicting the screenplay nominations is that the Writes Guild Nominations sometimes do not accurately predict sure fire nominees. Many screenplays are not eligible.
Spoiler: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Best Supporting Actress
1. Berenice Bejo - The Artist
2. Jessica Chastain - The Help
3. Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids
4. Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs
5. Octavia Spencer - The Help
Spolier: Shailene Woodley - The Descendants
I really, really, really, don't want to say this but I believe that Melissa McCarthy will get nominated. She has gotten enough support from critics, the Golden Globes and the SAG. It would be a real treat to see Woodley get the nomination.
Best Supporting Actor
1. Kenneth Branagh - My Week With Marilyn
2. Albert Brooks - Drive
3. Jonah Hill - Moneyball
4. Brad Pitt - The Tree of Life
5. Christopher Plummer - Beginners
I going to shoot a myself in the foot with this, but I do think that Pitt could sneak in with a nomination. He had an incredible year. The chances of him being honored for Moneyball is sub-par; But the Academy could honor him for his great performance in The Tree of Life proving that Pitt is continuing to grow as an actor.
Nick Nolte will probably get the nomination for Warrior. Many are calling it some of his best work of his career. I feel like he really didn't add anything. Just another alcoholic father type role. He was good, but not Oscar worthy.
Best Actress
1. Viola Davis - The Help
2. Rooney Mara - The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
3. Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
4. Charlize Theron - Young Adult
5. Michelle Williams - My Week With Marilyn
There are 7 women competing. Glenn Close and Tilda Swinton are favored more to get two slots than Mara and Theron. But something tells me that Swinton is vulnerable more that Close. Albert Nobbs is get polarizing reviews and I can see Close slip through the cracks.
Best Actor
1. George Clooney - The Descendants
2. Jean Dujardin - The Artist
3. Michael Fassbender - Shame
4. Brad Pitt - Moneyball
5. Michael Shannon - Take Shelter
There are four locks (Fassbender, Clooney, Pitt and Dujardin). I would not be surprised if the Academy pulled a wildcard like Shannon. They did when he was nominated in 2008 for Revolutionary Road. Plus last year they chose Javier Bardem over Robert Duvall or Gosling. DiCaprio lost a lot of momentum.
Best Director
1. Michel Hazanvious - The Artist
2. Alexander Payne - The Descendants
3. Martin Scorsese - Hugo
4. Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris
5. Steven Spielberg - War Horse
Spolier(s) - David Fincher, Nicolas Winding Refn, or Terrence Malick.
If the Tree of Life is good with the Academy, it would be a shame if Malick didn't get nominated for HIS film. If the Academy goes for Drive, then Refn could be an upset. I only think Fincher but the DGA usually nominates someone that is not in the top five at the Oscars (Christopher Nolan, Cameron Crowe, Bill Condon).
Best Picture
1. The Artist
2. The Descendants
3. The Help
4. Hugo
5. Midnight in Paris
6. Moneyball
7. The Tree of Life
8. War Horse
9. Drive
10. Bridesmaids
Spoiler(s): The Ides of March, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Well, here is me attempting to shoot a fish in a barrel. I will most likely believe that the Academy will nominate 8 films for this year. It's the safest number of them all. But I chose nine because I am tossed up whether or not the Academy will embrace Drive and The Tree of Life. The other films are locked even though some films lost a bit of steam (War Horse and The Help).
These nine films I chose will almost be a perfect example at what 2011 was all about. Smart, challenging films or movies that paid homages to film itself.
I would really hate to see Bridesmaids get nominated. The Ides of March would be less of a blow. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo was nominated by the PGA, but I think because people are questioning The Tree of Life.
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